Trump’s Tariffs Are Not Why Washington Is Unaffordable
State and local policy choices matter far more than Olympia is willing to admit
By: Jessie Simmons
The Government Affairs Desk
Category: Affordability & Cost of Living
Over the past several months, Washington Democrats have increasingly pointed to Donald Trump’s tariffs as a central explanation for why families are struggling with the cost of living. Tariffs make for a convenient villain. They are federal, external, and politically useful.
They are also a minor contributor to the affordability crisis Washington residents experience every day.
Tariffs raise prices on certain imported goods. That is real. What is not real is the suggestion that tariffs explain why Washington has among the highest housing costs, energy prices, child care expenses, and overall cost of living in the country.
A review of the research makes this clear. Washington’s affordability problem is overwhelmingly homegrown.
What the research actually says about tariffs
Economists broadly agree that tariffs function like a tax on imports and that much of that cost is passed on to consumers. Multiple mainstream analyses confirm this.
Research summarized by Econofact found that the most recent round of tariffs contributed roughly 0.7 percentage points to national inflation by late 2025, with the impact concentrated in goods prices rather than services or housing.
Similarly, a Federal Reserve analysis detected measurable tariff pass through in consumer goods prices, particularly for imported durable goods like appliances and furniture.
The Yale Budget Lab estimated that more than half of tariff costs are passed on to consumers, raising prices for affected goods in the short run.
In plain terms, tariffs make things like electronics, furniture, appliances, and some building materials more expensive. That can show up during holiday shopping. A couch or television might cost more this year than it otherwise would have.
But tariffs primarily affect goods, not the largest expenses in modern household budgets.
Why tariffs do not explain Washington’s affordability crisis
For most Washington families, the affordability crisis is not driven by discretionary purchases. It is driven by housing, energy, child care, healthcare, insurance, transportation, and taxes.
Those costs are overwhelmingly shaped by state and local policy, not global trade policy.
Housing is the dominant cost driver
Housing is by far the largest expense for most households. In Washington, housing unaffordability is structural.
According to the Washington Center for Real Estate Research, median home prices in Washington have far outpaced income growth, leaving a majority of families unable to afford a median priced home.
Industry and academic studies consistently find that regulation alone accounts for roughly 25 to 30 percent of the cost of a new home in Washington.
That includes zoning constraints, permitting delays, impact fees, utility connection costs, environmental review, and litigation risk. None of those costs are affected by tariffs.
Washington lawmakers have passed meaningful housing reforms in recent years, including zoning changes and permit streamlining. Those were important steps. But those reforms coexist with other policies that continue to raise costs, including rent stabilization, expanding fees, and local implementation practices that quietly re add expense through design standards and discretionary review.
Tariffs can raise the price of a refrigerator. They do not explain why housing costs hundreds of thousands of dollars more than local incomes can support.
Taxes and fees hit Washington families every month
Another major driver of unaffordability is state and local taxation.
In 2025, Washington expanded retail sales tax to new categories of services. That means families pay higher prices not just at the store, but indirectly through higher costs for repairs, maintenance, professional services, staffing, and construction.
Transportation related taxes and fees were also expanded, directly increasing the cost of vehicle ownership and commuting.
These are policy choices made in Olympia and local governments. They are embedded in monthly household budgets. Tariffs are not.
Energy and transportation costs are policy driven
Washington consistently ranks among the states with the highest fuel prices. That is not because of tariffs.
It is because of state policy decisions that affect fuel supply, carbon compliance costs, and transportation funding. Multiple analyses have estimated that Washington’s climate policies contribute tens of cents per gallon to gasoline prices, with variation depending on market conditions.
Energy costs ripple through the entire economy. Higher fuel prices raise food prices, construction costs, delivery charges, and service fees. This is a major affordability multiplier for working families.
Again, tariffs are not the driver here.
Child care and healthcare are local failures, not trade policy
Child care costs now rival housing for many Washington families. Provider shortages, licensing barriers, and regulatory overhead are the primary causes. Tariffs do not affect whether a family can find child care or afford it.
Healthcare affordability is similarly disconnected from tariffs. Premiums, deductibles, and access are driven by provider capacity, reimbursement rules, and administrative complexity, all shaped by state policy.
Blaming tariffs for these costs avoids confronting the real policy challenges.
Holiday shopping is not the affordability crisis
Tariffs are often cited during the holiday season because they are visible. A toy costs more. A piece of furniture costs more.
But holiday shopping is not what is breaking family budgets.
What breaks budgets is rent going up hundreds of dollars a month, child care costing as much as a mortgage, utility bills that keep rising, fuel prices that stay high, and taxes and fees that never seem to go down.
Blaming tariffs for Washington’s affordability crisis is focusing on the most visible prices while ignoring the largest ones.
Why scapegoating tariffs is politically convenient
Pointing to tariffs allows state leaders to externalize blame. If the problem is federal policy, the solution is more state spending, more credits, and more subsidies.
That approach avoids a harder conversation about Washington’s own role in creating high costs through regulation, taxes, fees, and local implementation choices.
It also signals that affordability will continue to be managed, not solved.
What honesty on affordability would look like
An honest affordability conversation would acknowledge that tariffs contribute to goods inflation while recognizing that their impact is secondary in Washington.
It would openly admit that state and local decisions play a dominant role in housing costs, energy prices, taxes, and service costs.
It would focus on enforcing housing reforms against local cost layering, reducing permitting delays and litigation risk, stabilizing energy prices through reliable supply, and pausing new state created cost adders while families are already stretched.
Most importantly, it would stop pretending that Washington can tax, regulate, and mandate its way to affordability while blaming outside forces for the results.
The bottom line
Trump’s tariffs do raise prices on certain goods. That is supported by the research.
They are not the reason Washington is unaffordable.
Washington’s affordability crisis is the product of years of state and local policy choices that raised the cost of housing, energy, transportation, services, and taxes faster than incomes.
Until Democratic leaders are willing to acknowledge that reality, Washington families should expect more blame shifting and more expensive holidays, not because of tariffs alone, but because the cost of everyday life in this state continues to climb.
